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專欄 - 從華爾街到硅谷

研究稱維權投資者不都是“野蠻人”

Dan Primack 2016年03月03日

Dan Primack專注于報道交易和交易撮合者,從美國金融業到風險投資業均有涉及。此前,Dan是湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的自由編輯,推出了peHUB.com和peHUB Wire郵件服務。作為一名新聞工作者,Dan還曾在美國馬薩諸塞州羅克斯伯里經營一份社區報紙。目前他居住在波士頓附近。
“在維權投資者加入前,公司的股東總回報整體都在下滑,而在維權投資者加入后,它們的股東總回報累計增加了36%。”

硅谷通常蔑視維權投資者,認為他們是目光短淺的投機客,只會給公司帶來麻煩,百無一用。不過,波士頓咨詢公司的一份最新報告顯示,這樣的觀點有失公正。

我們首先需要了解的是,科技界已經成為維權投資者最常瞄準的領域。波士頓咨詢公司發現,標準普爾1500指數成份股公司中,有13%的概率會成為維權投資者的目標,如果這家公司是科技公司,這種概率就會增長到22%,比名列第二的非必需消費品領域高出4%。如果這家科技公司發放的股息較低,或資本支出較高,它就尤其容易成為目標,更不用說那些同時具備這兩種特征的公司了。

蘋果、EMC和雅虎等科技公司備受維權投資者青睞,是有許多原因的。比如,這一行業相對年輕卻很成熟。但是,波士頓咨詢公司認為,主要驅動力是這些公司在互聯網泡沫破裂之后持續放緩的收益增速:

Silicon Valley is generally disdainful of activist investors, branding them as near-term profiteers who provide technology companies with little more than headaches. But a new report from Boston Consulting Group suggests that such sentiment is unjustified.

Before continuing, it’s important to understand that technology has become the sector most often targeted by activists. BCG finds that a typical S&P 1500 company has a 13% chance of becoming an activist target, whereas the likelihood rises to 22% for technology companies. That’s four percentage points higher than the next most-targeted sector, consumer discretionary. And tech companies are particularly vulnerable if they have low dividends or high capital expenditures (let alone both).

There are a lots of reasons why tech companies like Apple AAPL 0.16% , EMC EMC 0.46% and Yahoo YHOO 0.03% have become so attractive to activist investors ― including the industry’s relative youth and subsequent maturation—but BCG believes the primary driver has been slowed earnings growth since the dotcom crash:

顯然,緩慢的增長會減少股東總回報率,尤其是與低股息等因素結合在一起時。

這就是波士頓咨詢公司重大發現的來源。該公司分析了最近24個維權投資者涉入科技公司的案例(并未透露是哪些公司),發現這些公司的股東總回報有著“顯著”提升。這不是維權投資者參與幾周或幾個月內的短期效應,而是在參與兩年后依然存在的長期影響。

Slowed growth, of course, tends to reduce total shareholder returns. Particularly when married to things like low dividends.

And that’s where BCG’s big finding comes in. The firm analyzed 24 recent situations in which activists got involved with tech companies (it did not identify the companies), and found “significant” increases in total shareholder returns. Not only in the initial weeks or months, but for at least two years after the activists existed.

報告表示:“在維權投資者加入前,公司的股東總回報整體都在下滑,而在維權投資者加入后,它們的股東總回報累計增加了36%。”

由此看來,維權投資者在短期內是不會離開硅谷了。(財富中文網)

譯者:嚴匡正

審校:任文科

“Companies on average suffered [total shareholder return] declines prior to an activist event and enjoyed 36% cumulative TSR during the activists’ involvement,” according to the report.

It doesn’t look like the activists will be leaving Silicon Valley anytime soon.

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